Topic > Intelligence Analysis - 2045

I. INTRODUCTION: The United States intelligence community uses advanced technologies and analytical techniques. An intelligence process that defines objectives, collects, analyzes and reports results, with feedback loops integrated throughout. Explicitly, the intelligence community benefits technology and craftsmanship within a proscribed process. However, threat estimation and decision making are outcomes of human thinking. Analysts and policymakers create mental models, or shortcuts, for managing complex and changing environments. In other words, to make sense of ambiguous or uncertain situations, humans form cognitive biases. Informed due to personal experience, education, and specifically applied to intelligence analysis, Davis (2008) also adds biases formed by factors such as past reports and organizational norms (Davis 2008, 158-160). Former Central Intelligence analyst Jones (1998) defines bias as “an unconscious belief that conditions, governs, and constrains our behavior” (Jones 1998, 22). The analyst views goals through his or her personal cognitive biases, then perceives cause-and-effect or patterns with self-fulfilling expectations.II. PREJUDICE PROBLEM: Prejudices, as Jones describes, are what govern our behavior. Therefore, as human beings we cannot function without bias. Dr. Johnston, ethnographer for the Central Intelligence Agency, goes a step further. Johnston (2005) states: “although research may pretend to be neutral and impartial in presenting its findings and conclusions, personal biases can creep into the finished product” (Johnston 2005, 10-11). Biases are necessary, but they can lead analysts astray. A powerful bias that is common throughout the intelligence community and inflicts new and veteran analysts alike... half of the paper... nce Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach. 3rd ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Gates, Robert M. 1992. Guard Against Politicization. Center for the Study of Intelligence. Historical Document, Central Intelligence Agency, 201. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/volume-36-number-1/html/v36i1a01p_0001.htm #top (accessed 1 June 2012). George, Roger, G. and Bruce, James, B. 2008. Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, And Innovations, edited by Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.Lowenthal, Mark, M. 2012. Intelligence from Secrets to Politics. 5th ed. Washington, DC: SAGE/CQ Press.Medina, Carmen A. 2008. The new analysis. In Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations, edited by Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.